Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will arrive in China on Wednesday to try to maintain the recent and delicate stabilization of ties between the United States and China, as tensions over trade, territorial disputes and national security threaten to derail relations again.
Even as Mr. Blinken’s plane approached Shanghai, the challenges ahead were clear. He would land just hours after the US Senate passed a bill, which President Biden is expected to quickly sign into law, that provides $8 billion to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region, and could also lead to a nationwide ban on the Chinese. -owned by TikTok app.
The political season in the United States also looms as a complication. With the presidential elections approaching, Democrats and Republicans are fighting to appear tougher on China. And if former President Donald Trump is re-elected, he could undo Beijing and Washington’s efforts to stabilize the relationship.
During Mr. Blinken’s three-day trip, which will also include a visit to Beijing, he plans to pressure Chinese officials on a wide range of issues, including support for Russia, cheap Chinese exports that U.S. officials say threaten American jobs, and Chinese aggressive ship maneuvers in the South China Sea, a senior State Department official told reporters in a telephone briefing.
Chinese officials are likely to raise the issue of US support for Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims, and trade restrictions that Beijing calls discriminatory.
Mr Blinken is expected to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It is not clear whether he will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as he did during his last visit in June.
That visit – the first by a US secretary of state to China since 2018 – came at perhaps the worst time in US-China relations in recent years. High-level military communications were cut off and neighboring countries feared the two powers would end up in war.
Since then, relations have thawed somewhat. China’s economy is slowing and Beijing has adopted a softer diplomatic tone to attract more foreign investment. While Washington continues to warn that China poses a global security threat, it has said it wants to keep communications open.
In November, Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi met for four hours near San Francisco. Afterwards, China agreed to resume cooperation with the United States in the fight against global fentanyl production, and both countries reaffirmed the importance of restoring cultural exchanges. The two leaders also spoke by phone this month.
Last week, the countries’ top defense officials held a video conference, their first substantive engagement since late 2022.
But new sources of tension are emerging. Western officials have become increasingly vocal about concerns that China is backing Russia in its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of “significant consequences” if Beijing provided material support during her own visit to China earlier this month. China has insisted this is not the case as it has deepened ties with Moscow. Mr. Xi hosted Russia’s foreign minister this month, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is expected to visit China soon.
U.S. officials have also said China is dumping cheap electric vehicles and solar panels on overseas markets, hurting U.S. companies. China has rejected the accusations as smacking of protectionism.
The aggressive behavior of Chinese ships in waters disputed with the Philippines and Japan has also raised concerns about a possible clash that could lead to the United States, a treaty ally of those countries.
On Taiwan, perhaps the most sensitive issue in the US-China relationship, the island will next month inaugurate its new president, Lai Ching-te, who is reviled by Beijing as an advocate of Taiwanese independence.
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during his call that China “would not tolerate any compromise” on Taiwan, according to the Chinese readout.
Within the United States, anti-China rhetoric is likely to increase as Democrats and Republicans battle to outdo each other in one of the few areas where bipartisan agreement exists. While campaigning last week in Pennsylvania, a steel industry stronghold, Mr. Biden called for raising tariffs on steel imports from China.
“We had high expectations after the San Francisco summit, but recent developments have put a lot of strain on the relationship,” said Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University. “If you add up all these negative developments, you get a pretty depressing picture of the US-China relationship right now.”
Both countries have reason to try to prevent escalating tensions. The United States has asked China to help keep Iran, with which it has good relations, from turning its hostilities with Israel into an outright war. And China is eager to stave off further tariffs from the United States as strong exports have helped the country offset a housing crisis and weak consumer spending.
But both countries may also have little room for diplomatic maneuvering, due to hardening public opinion on both sides.
“There are already so many irritants and issues of mistrust within the relationship,” said Allen Carlson, professor of international relations at Cornell University.
“If you have a pan that is already almost boiling, you only need to add a degree or two to push everything over the edge.”