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Keir Starmer’s decision to speak out on issues raised by Brexit will provide an early indication of whether the Labor Party is ready for the pressure of a general election campaign, according to pollsters.
Questions about Britain’s ongoing relationship with the European Union proved a major Achilles heel for Starmer when he first became Labor leader in 2020, and he was often accused of avoiding the issue altogether. Starmer’s initial support for the cross-party campaign for a second Brexit referendum was also an easy target for Conservative attacks in the wake of Boris Johnson’s 2019 popular election promise to ‘get Brexit done’.
But this week the Labor leader, who according to opinion polls is likely to win the next general election, is apparently more optimistic. In an interview with the Financial times Speaking at a meeting of centre-left political leaders in Canada, Starmer said he would try to create a “much better” relationship with the EU than the deal negotiated by Johnson. “I think we can also have a closer trade relationship,” he said. “That is a subject for further discussion.”
According to Luke Tryl, UK director of polling firm More in Common, the Labor leader faces a tightrope walk between tackling the post-crisis crisis, although evidence shows the British public is open to talking about how the UK’s relationship with the EU can be improved. Brexit poses problems and makes itself vulnerable to Tory claims that he wants to reopen the 2016 referendum debate.
Scarlett Maguire, director of polling firm JL Partners Polls, agreed that Starmer’s apparent increased willingness to discuss Brexit will be an “interesting test case” for how Labor will perform in a policy area that was not so long ago seen as a major weakness for Brexit. party.
But one Labor source rejected that this was shaky ground for Starmer, saying the substance of his comments in Montreal were no different to what he had said in a July 2022 speech at the Center for European Reform, in which he promised “ to bring Brexit to a successful conclusion.” work”. They said PoliticsHome that his plans are now simply attracting more attention because he is being taken more seriously as the next prime minister.
But while Starmer’s comments reflect his previously stated desire to ‘make Brexit work’, his decision to speak explicitly about rewriting the Brexit deal during his tour of the world stage, including a meeting with the French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, showed greater confidence around the problem.
The Labor source said improving Johnson’s Brexit deal was a “squabble” that Labor is “comfortable” with the Tories.
It also comes as part of a wider Labor effort to make clear what the party would do if elected to government, rather than simply condemning the Tory government’s apparent failures. Earlier this month, the Shadow Cabinet was told that a major challenge they face is convincing deeply pessimistic voters that Labor can solve the problems facing the country.
A Shadow Cabinet member said Starmer promised to improve Britain’s ties with the EU “do to Keir as he sees fit”.
Tryl told PoliticsHome that the challenge facing Starmer and Labor is talking about how to improve Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU without the public wanting to revisit the criticism of the years following the 2016 referendum.
“What the public absolutely does not want is a return to the Brexit wrangling,” he said.
‘It was interesting to see Conservative Party Chairman Greg Hands talking about Keir Starmer taking us back to square one, which is really not what the public wants.
“But having said that, people in focus groups in polls are telling you that Brexit isn’t working… There’s certainly room to say we want to make it work better.”
Maguire said the relevance of Brexit as an issue has declined significantly in recent years and that most voters, when asked about the issue, want to see closer trade ties with Brussels.
“What we have seen in our polling is that a majority of Britons, including a majority of Leavers, want closer ties with the EU when it comes to trade,” she explained.
“There is clear support among almost all demographic groups for closer ties than we currently have. If you look at that, Labor will probably think this is a safe thing to play on.
“I really think this is a conversation that the British public is ready for.”
However, both agreed that there was a risk for Starmer that his policy of closer trade links with the EU would be combined with the perceived position of wanting higher levels of immigration.
“Immigration is more of a livewire issue,” Maguire said.
The Labor leader was given a taste of what’s to come in the next general election campaign last week when Tory ministers accused him of being willing to allow more asylum seekers to come to Britain as part of a return deal of small boats with Brussels.
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