Why are these elections important?
This year marks the 30th anniversary of South Africa’s first democratic elections, but millions of people continue to suffer economic hardships comparable to those experienced during apartheid.
Most black South Africans do not earn enough to meet their basic needs. Inequality and unemployment have increased, basic services such as water and electricity are unreliable, racial disparities remain wide and political corruption has left many fed up with democracy in the country.
All this has put the African National Congress, the liberation party that has ruled since the dawn of South Africa’s democracy, under more pressure than ever before as it heads into elections on May 29. The party had comfortably won the six previous national elections. absolute majority in parliament, allowing it to govern as it wishes. Now, however, the party is faced with a real threat of losing that majority for the first time.
This has forced the ANC to get serious about proposing new solutions to the many problems facing the country. The party has also had to work hard to mend internal divisions and tackle corruption within its ranks.
As one of the most developed economies and stable democracies in Africa, South Africa has enthusiastically embraced its role as a gateway to the continent for countries around the world. But grim economic conditions have raised fears of social unrest that could undermine the stability so important to the country’s reputation and influence on the continent.
How does South Africa vote?
Voters choose a party on their ballot paper, and the percentage of votes a party receives determines how many seats it gets in the 400-member National Assembly. Members of the assembly, the more powerful of the two chambers in parliament, then elect the president. This means that the party, or coalition of parties, with more than 50 percent of the seats elects the leader of the country.
But this year there is a change in the system.
For the first time, South Africans can stand for parliament without being affiliated with a party. To accommodate this shift, parliament passed a law creating a second round of voting with independent candidates. If an independent candidate meets a certain voting threshold to enter Parliament, it reduces the number of seats available to other parties.
For example, if 10 independent candidates win seats, the remaining 390 seats are divided among the parties based on the percentage of votes each party receives.
Who is running and who is likely to win?
The ANC is led by the incumbent president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who will almost certainly retain his position if the party receives more than 50 percent of the vote. It remains to be seen whether the party will be able to do this.
The ANC won with 57 percent of the vote in the last national election in 2019, but many polls predict it will dip below that 50 percent threshold. Party leaders remain confident they will retain absolute control as the most the ANC has ever lost from one election to the next is 4.65 percentage points.
Even if the ANC loses its absolute majority, it will likely have enough support to form a coalition with other parties and continue to lead the government. But the party could find it must make serious policy and governance compromises, depending on how much electoral support it loses and who it works with.
One wildcard is that the former president of the ANC and the country, Jacob Zuma, has quit the party in an unprecedented move and joined a newly formed political organization, the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party. The party has had strong poll numbers and has performed well in a handful of local elections.
The leading opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, led the formation of a coalition of 11 parties that say they will form a government if the ANC fails to retain its majority.
When will we find out the results?
The results are expected to be announced about three days after the vote.
Where can I find more information?
Jacob Zuma, the scandal-ridden former president of South Africa, is running again