4 minutes reading
In recent weeks there has been a revival of a dying art form: the courtroom sketch. In America, each state makes its own courtroom rules; so in the 1990s, live TV coverage of the California-based OJ Simpson trial gripped the American nation.
In contrast, the hush money trial of Donald Trump was conducted in a camera-free zone; cameras have been banned in New York courtrooms since the 1930s.
Instead, the artists work at extraordinary speed, producing multiple sketches every day. In my opinion, they brilliantly capture the essence of Trump. But they are the first to recognize the quality of their raw material.
One of them, Christine Cornell, has said of Trump: “His hair is fantastic; I pull it forward from the back of the head like a wave of gold. (Incidentally, according to Trump’s daughter Ivanka, this is exactly how Trump himself — albeit with a comb instead of chalk — begins his daily hair-building routine.)
But these artistic days are coming to an end. Closing arguments are expected soon and a ruling by the end of May. And speculation is mounting about the implications for Election Day, November 5, less than six months away.
This criminal trial is one of four Trump faces, and by far the least serious. But the other three, which allege that he plotted to overturn the 2020 election results, that he conspired to overturn his narrow loss in Georgia, and that he mishandled classified documents, are all, thanks to the delaying tactics of the Trump’s lawyers, immersed in the quagmire. waters of the American legal system and may not resurface before the election.
So this could be it: a single penalty shootout. And how are you? If Trump is acquitted, it would be a huge boost for him. The waverers could take it as permission to vote for him and he could ride his victory wave all the way to the White House.
But judging by the reporting in the American mainstream media, things are not going well for the former president; the prosecution has reportedly been masterful, the defense ineffective. Trump’s unofficial biographer, the independent-minded Michael Wolff, went further, recently telling Sky News that Trump is “heading towards conviction.”
Could this be the end of him; the Orange fading into a similarly colored sunset?
“No” is my answer, for at least three reasons. First, it wouldn’t stop him from continuing to run for the highest office. As a convicted felon, for example, he would not be allowed to run for the state legislature in West Virginia, or even vote in Alabama — but the founding fathers imposed no such restriction on the presidency. In 1920, self-proclaimed socialist Eugene V Debs even ran for president from prison; furthermore, he received almost a million votes.
Second, Trump would certainly appeal, with two avenues for redress: the Appellate Division of the New York Supreme Court and then the New York State Court of Appeals.
And third, Trump has so far successfully leveraged his legal challenges to support his political ambitions. He has repeatedly claimed to be the victim of a politically motivated series of prosecutions engineered by Biden’s Justice Department. And with each announcement of new prosecutions, his personal ratings have risen.
But would the same be true if Trump were convicted? Opinions vary among US political experts, but recent polls suggest Trump and his team should be concerned. A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that, if convicted, 16 percent of Trump supporters would reconsider their support for him and four percent would withdraw it.
In a close election, this could be crucial. So the landscape is littered with known unknowns – too many to allow informed predictions. However, if the US elections are The greatest show on earththen this episode, with its colorful cast of fairground characters, is pure vaudeville: but still potentially decisive.
Lord Darroch, crossbench peer and former British ambassador to the US
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