As the sunset sets, a ferry glides over the waters of the Golden Horn with the Suleymaniye Mosque and the city of Istanbul, Turkey in the background.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once said: whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey. If so, the stakes will be high in Sunday’s elections as people across the country of 85 million prepare to select their local leaders and administrators.
This weekend’s vote is so important that political analysts speculate that a victory for Istanbul’s incumbent mayor, center-left Ekrem Imamoglu, would make him a front-runner for the Turkish presidency in 2028.
That is the last thing Erdogan wants, having already seen his conservative, Islamist-sympathizing Justice and Development Party, abbreviated in Turkey as AK Party or AKP., was defeated by Imamoglu and the more secular, moderate Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the city’s 2019 elections. Erdogan was so outraged by the election results that he called a second election, only to see Imamoglu defeat the AK mayoral candidate defeated the party by a margin. wider margin.
A victory for the opposition on Sunday could take the country in a new direction, posing a major challenge to Erdogan and the AK Party’s decades-long grip on power. Erdogan himself rose to prominence as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, before later becoming president. Now he is pushing hard for his party’s mayoral candidate, Murat Kurum, a 47-year-old former minister of the environment and urbanization.
“Istanbul is emerging as a very important point in the political struggle,” says Arda Tunca. an Istanbul-based economist at PolitikYol, told CNBC. The city has 16 million inhabitants, making it more densely populated than 20 of the 27 countries in the European Union.
And Turkey, as the second-largest military in NATO and a key economic and political crossroads between east and west, has elevated itself to a global player in recent years, playing a prominent mediating role in conflicts such as the war between Ukraine and Russia and by mediating large investments. and trade deals with wealthy Arab Gulf states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan during a press conference in Istanbul, Turkey, March 8, 2024.
Umit Bektas | Reuters
“Many countries in the world are governed by cabinets of ministers, but Istanbul – larger than many of those countries – is governed by a mayor. This is strange, but also shows how important it is to win Istanbul,” said Tunca.
Major Turkish cities like Istanbul and the capital Ankara will be important races to watch. Both were won by the opposition in 2019.
“Turkish municipal elections are often a political barometer ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections due in 2028,” said Kristin Ronzi, Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk consultancy RANE.
“While the candidate platforms for the municipal elections reflect local issues that affect the daily lives of Turkish citizens, the municipal elections could pave the way for the next presidential elections.”
‘The biggest problem for the opposition is the opposition itself’
Despite years of economic turbulence, inflation of over 65% and… Turkish lira at its weakest ever against the dollarTunca believes Erdogan’s AK Party, which has long been dominant at the national level, will win this weekend’s match. He attributes this to the opposition itself, which he describes as its own worst enemy.
“For the opposition, the main challenge is its weak politicians and disorganized politics. The biggest problem for the opposition is the opposition itself,” he said.
Istanbul Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu speaks during the May 19 Atatürk Remembrance Day Youth and Sports Day celebration held at Maltepe Event Area on May 19, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey.
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A large opposition coalition came together in May 2023 in an attempt to unseat Erdogan from the presidency during Turkey’s last general election. The result was a major defeat and disappointment for the opposition, led by Imamoglu’s CHP.
Some in Turkey blame this on the fact that the popular Imamoglu himself, now 52, was barred from participating in the elections by the Turkish judiciary, a move Erdogan’s opponents say was devised by the president to limit his competition. The AK Party says the reason behind the ban was tax-related crimes, while CHP supporters say it was purely political.
“Although the AKP has governed the country very poorly and economic conditions in Turkey have deteriorated, the AKP will again be the winner of the upcoming elections,” Tunca claimed.
Rane’s Ronzi sees the match as more of a toss-up.
“The polls for the Istanbul mayoral race show a close race,” she said. The opposition is now more fragmented than before, meaning multiple opposition candidates could split the vote.
Still, she said, “the accurate polling of some of the key races indicates that the CHP has significant support in these municipalities. If the CHP candidates win in major races, it would demonstrate that they can overcome political fragmentation among opposition parties.”
These candidates would then “likely be positioned as potential presidential candidates ahead of the 2028 presidential elections due to their ability to gain popular support [and] unite the opposition voters,” she added.
‘Increasingly authoritarian’
Meanwhile, analysts are watching to see how the results will dictate Erdogan’s next steps, and whether an already uneven political playing field will become even less democratic.
Nonprofit organization Freedom House described Erdogan and his AK Party in its 2023 Freedom in the World country report on Turkey as having “become increasingly authoritarian in recent years, consolidating significant power through constitutional changes and by jailing opponents and critics .”
“A deepening economic crisis and the upcoming elections… have given the government new incentives to suppress dissent and limit public debate,” the report said.
CNBC has contacted the Turkish Presidency office for comment.
According to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute’s Turkish research program, a loss for Erdogan’s party could only harden rather than debunk these trends.
“If the president’s faction takes back the city from the opposition on March 31, he may feel comfortable enough to focus on more positive steps toward building a legacy,” he wrote in an article for the think tank. “But if he loses, he could double down on his nationalist and populist policies at home and abroad.”